The end of the credit crisis, the beginning of the environmental crisis
In this post I’m going to make two predictions: the first is bold (the credit crisis is over), the second is cynical (interests hostile to significant action on cutting/valuing carbon emissions will use the crisis to delay action).
Firstly, the credit crisis is over and I believe the recovery will be far faster than the experts are currently reporting. Don’t misunderstand me, there will still be significant pain suffered by significant numbers of people – those people who have already done their dough have done their dough – but the financial system will not melt down.
The crisis is over because governments are starting to work together to instill confidence that they will not let the banks fail. This will build depositors confidence that their deposits are safe and sellers confidence that letters of credit will be honoured.
The economy, like most things, is nothing more than a confidence game. Once confidence is restored, bargain hunters will start shopping and markets will recover.
Note: Odds are that, like others who engage in the prediction game, I’ll wind up with egg on my face; particularly given that I’m no expert in this space and my opinion on this topic carries about the same weight as Laika’s opinion on thrust and trajectory.
Secondly, even a reasonably speedy recovery will not stop the doomsayers – particularly those with a vested interest in using the upheaval to create sufficient fear to stall carbon trading schemes. The Guardian today reports that EC is set to grant industry relief on carbon trading:
Günter Verheugen, European Commissioner for Enterprise and Industry, in an exclusive interview with The Observer, said the move will prevent hundreds of thousands of job losses in the EU industrial sector amid the worst economic conditions for decades.
Look forward to reading many more dire media reports before the media finds another item to focus on. But rest assured, like the hiccups, one day we will realise the crisis is over, but we won’t be able to pinpoint exactly when it stopped.
